Once upon a time, early in the previous
century, a line in the sand was drawn, from Acre to Kirkuk. Two colonial powers
— Britain and France — nonchalantly divided the Middle East between themselves;
everything north of the line in the sand was France’s; south, it was Britain’s.
Many blowbacks — and concentric
tragedies — later, a new line in the sand is being drawn by Saudi Arabia and
Qatar. Between Syria and Iraq, they want it all. Talk about the return of the
repressed; now, as part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization-Gulf
Cooperation Council compound, they’re in bed with their former colonial
masters.
Blow by blow
No matter what militarized Western
corporate media spins, there’s no endgame in Syria — yet. On the contrary; the
sectarian game is just beginning.
It’s 1980s Afghanistan all over again.
The over 100 heavily armed gangs engaged in civil war in Syria are overflowing
with Gulf Cooperation Council funds financing their Russian RPGs bought on the
black market. Salafi-jihadis cross into Syria in droves — not only from Iraq
but also Kuwait, Algeria, Tunisia and Pakistan, following enraged calls by
their imams. Kidnapping, raping and slaughtering pro-Assad regime civilians is
becoming the law of the land.
They go after Christians with a
vengeance. They force Iraqi exiles in Damascus to leave, especially those
settled in Sayyida Zainab, the predominantly Shi’ite neighborhood named after
Prophet Muhammad’s grand-daughter, buried in the beautiful local mosque. The BBC,
to its credit, at least followed the story.
They perform summary executions; Iraq’s
deputy interior minister Adnan al-Assadi told AFP how Iraqi border guards saw
the Free Syrian Army (FSA) take control of a border outpost and then “executed
22 Syrian soldiers in front of the eyes of Iraqi soldiers”.
The Bab al-Hawa crossing between Syria
and Turkey was overrun by no less than 150 multinational self-described
mujahideen — coming from Algeria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, the United Arab
Emirates, Chechnya, and even France, many proclaiming their allegiance to
Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).
They burned a lot of Turkish trucks.
They shot their own promo video. They paraded their al-Qaeda flag. And they
declared the whole border area an Islamic state.
Hand over your terrorist ID
There’s no way to understand the Syrian
dynamics without learning that most FSA commanders are not Syrians, but Iraqi
Sunnis. The FSA could only capture the Abu Kamal border crossing between Syria
and Iraq because the whole area is controlled by Sunni tribes viscerally
antagonistic towards the al-Maliki government in Baghdad. The free flow of
mujahideen, hardcore jihadis and weapons between Iraq and Syria is now more than
established.
The idea of the Arab League — behaving
as NATO-GCC’s fully robed spokesman — offering exile to Bashar al-Assad may be
as ridiculous as the notion of the CIA supervising which mujahideen and jihadi
outfits may have access to the weapons financed by Qatar and the Saudis.
At first, it might have been just a bad
joke. After all, the exile offer came from those exact same paragons of
democracy, the House of Saud and Qatar, who control the Arab League and are
financing the mujahideen and the anti-Syria jihad.
Baghdad, though, publicly condemned the
exile offer. And the aftermath — in fact on the same day — was worthy of The
Joker (yes, Batman’s foe); a wave of anti-Shi’ite bombings in Iraq, with over
100 people dead, duly claimed by the Islamic State of Iraq, al-Qaeda’s local
franchise. Spokesman Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi energetically urged the Sunni tribes
in Anbar and Nineveh to join the jihad and topple the “infidel” government in
Baghdad.
The mujahideen/jihadi back and forth
between Syria and Iraq has been more than confirmed by Izzat al-Shahbandar, a
senior member of Iraq’s Parliament and close aide to Prime Minister al-Maliki.
Baghdad even has updated lists. The crossover could only spawn more frenetic
Orwellian newspeak, nailed by the website Moon of Alabama.
Mujahideen and jihadis active in Iraq
are now “Iraqi insurgents”. And mujahideen and jihadis active in Syria remain
the usual “Syrian rebels”. They have been all decommissioned as “terrorists”.
Under this logic, the Colorado Batman shooter may also be described as an
“insurgent”.
Follow the money
As it stands, the romanticized Syrian
“rebels” plus the insurgents formerly known as terrorists cannot win against
the Syria military — not even with the Saudis and Qataris showering them with
loads of cash and weapons.
Nor is there any evidence the regime is
contemplating a retreat to the Alawite mountains in northern Syria, as evoked
by this collective foreign policy blog discussion. After all, the “rebels” do
not control any territory.
What’s certain is who would profit from
Syria being progressively balkanized. The House of Saud and Qatar would love
nothing better than to have the civil war exported to Iraq and Lebanon; in
their very narrow calculations, that would eventually yield fellow Sunni
regimes.
So expect Saudi and Qatari funds buying
every well-connected Syrian regime apparatchik in sight — even while the urban
Sunni bourgeosie still has not abandoned the ship.
And as the civil war spreads out, a
tsunami of weapons will keep inundating Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and of course
Turkey, boosting assorted guerrilla outfits, Kurdish included — yet one more
facet of now ostracized neo-Ottoman Turkey impotently watching nation states
carved out of that 1920s colonial line in the sand being smashed.
Strategically, this will always be a war
by proxy; essentially Saudi Arabia vs Iran — with the House of Saud behind
hardcore Islamists of all colors compared to Qatar supporting “its” Muslim
Brotherhood.
But most of all this is the US-NATO-GCC
vs Iran.
Israel’s motives go way beyond the
Saudi-Qatari sectarian lust. Israel’s Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu has just
excavated a Bushism — calling Iran-Syria-Hezbollah an “axis of evil”.
What Tel Aviv wants in the long run is
clear; for Washington, Obama administration or not, to bring down the axis.
Meanwhile, this long-term goal does not
prevent Defense Minister Ehud Barak from getting crazy — speculating on an
invasion of Syria based on a hypothetical transfer of Syrian anti-aircraft
missiles or even chemical weapons to Hezbollah.
Washington for its part would love at
least a pliable/puppet Sunni regime in Damascus to turbo-charge the encircling
of Iran — without increasing Israel’s substantial fears. Meanwhile, what passes
for “smart power” is no more than glorified wishful thinking. Here in detail is
how pro-Israel functionaries in the US are designing post-Assad Syria.
Meet the new Bane
For all its production values, NATO’s
jihad — in conjunction with al-Qaeda affiliates and copycats — still has not
delivered regime change. UN Security Council sanctions won’t be forthcoming, as
Beijing and Moscow have already stressed three times. So Plan Bs keep surfacing
all the time. The latest is straight from the Iraq playbook; Damascus will
attack civilians with chemical weapons. This lasted only for a few news cycles.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has
already made it clear; regime change is anathema, especially for a reason that
eludes most in the West — jihadis at the gates of Damascus means they are a
stone’s throw from the Caucasus, the possible new pearl in a lethal collar
bound to destabilize Muslim Russia.
Blowback meanwhile is ready to strike
like the Medusa. What is for all practical purposes NATO-GCC mujahideen/jihadi
death squads will be more than happy to bleed Syria across sectarian lines — in
the sand and especially in urban areas. It’s hunting season now, not only for
Alawites but also Christians (10% of the population).
A foreign policy that privileges Sunni
jihadis formerly known as terrorists to create a “democratic” state in the Middle
East seems to have been conjured by Bane — the Hannibal Lecter meets Darth
Vader bad guy in The Dark Knight Rises, the final chapter of the Batman
trilogy. And yes, we are his creators. While the best lack all conviction, and
the worst are full of passionate intensity, a masked Sunni jihadi superman is
slouching towards Damascus to be born.
Pepe Escobar is the author of
Globalistan: How the Globalized World is Dissolving into Liquid War (Nimble
Books, 2007) and Red Zone Blues: a snapshot of Baghdad during the surge. His
most recent book is Obama does Globalistan (Nimble Books, 2009). He may be
reached at pepeasia@yahoo.com
Notes:
1.
http://vaticaninsider.lastampa.it/en/homepage
/world-news/detail/articolo/
siria-syria-15868/
2.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18930876
3,
http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/07/22/227739.html
4.
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2012/07/nyt-terrorists-are
-now-insurgents.html#comments
5.
http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/07/20/
inside_the_secret_effort_to_
plan_for_a_post_assad_syria
Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online
A
new political order is emerging in the Middle East, and Turkey aspires
to be its leader by taking a stand against authoritarian regimes.
Earlier this week, Turkey’s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, went
so far as to denounce the Syrian government’s continuing massacres of
civilians as